Where is the LED investment falling to the bottom of the investment opportunity?

Since August, the stocks of listed companies including LEDs such as Dehao Runda, Alto Electronics, and Qinshang Optoelectronics have outperformed the market, which has attracted the attention of many investors.

In fact, due to fierce competition and high inventory, the performance of more than 20 LED listed companies in the China Daily has been flat, and many companies are in a state of loss. On the other hand, since the second quarter, many fund companies have chosen to reverse the market to increase the LED sector.

After the performance falls to the bottom, is the company's fundamentals in the LED industry expected to improve, and where are the investment opportunities in the sector?

Performance fell to the bottom
The market demand is huge and the policy is strongly supported. At one time, many industrial capitals have been optimistic about the prospects of the LED industry and made large investments. This has caused the industry to suffer from overcapacity and high inventory levels.

The data shows that among the 20 LED companies in Shenwan, only 8 companies achieved positive growth in net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company in the first half of the year, and the performance of the remaining 12 LED companies was negative. This is also the worst performance of listed companies in the LED industry since 2010.

Among them, the first half of the year, the best performance of the first half of the industry chain integration, Dehao Runda's net profit in the first half of the year only increased by 21.5%. In addition, the net profit of Alto Electronics, Qinshang Optoelectronics and Jufei Optoelectronics increased by 20.84%, 18.16% and 10.91% respectively in the first half of the year.

The other four companies have achieved only a “small profit” of less than 10%. The net profit growth of Liard, Changfang Lighting, Lehman Optoelectronics and Sanan Optoelectronics was 7%, 3.05%, 2.73% and 1.55% respectively.

The remaining 12 companies experienced negative growth in the first half of the year. The net profit of Huacan Optoelectronics, Silan Micro and Weiwei decreased by 39.4%, 88.02% and 94.2% respectively.

From the indicator of inventory turnover efficiency, inventory turnover days, the LED industry continued to deteriorate in this year's mid-year report. Wind statistics show that Shenwan LED industry's inventory turnover days (the overall method) in the middle of this year is 156.6 days, while the inventory turnover days in the same period last year was 130.14 days, the previous year was 114.26 days.

In addition, the profitability of the LED industry has also declined. This year's mid-year report, the industry's sales gross margin was 28.67%, lower than last year and 29.48% and 31.89% of the same period last year.

"In 2011, the supply of LED chips reached 174 billion, of which LED backlights were the mainstay, and the market demand was only 129 billion. The supply was much larger than the demand, and the overcapacity phenomenon was obvious." He Zaihua, a senior researcher at CIC.

In an interview, 冉儒学, a partner and vice president of the policy management consulting group, said: "This industry has experienced rapid growth in the industry and has brought about high inventory levels due to the large amount of money coming in. However, in the long run, Demand is still widespread."

In the research report released by Orient Securities, it is expected that with the advent of the traditional lighting season, LED backlights will enter the “11” promotion stocking peak period, optimistic about the performance from September to October.

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