In 2013, we introduced PV enterprise access standards

It is understood that an industry access certification standard that restricts all photovoltaic companies is ready to go out, and many companies are facing elimination. In the related listed PV companies, many companies have suffered losses for the fourth quarter in a row, and the loss rate has widened. Investors should be very vigilant about the rebound of PV companies' stock prices.

Yesterday, the stock price of many listed photovoltaic companies began to fall. Among them, Tianwei Change decreased by 1.27%, Tuoba New City fell by 3.8%, Vosges shares dropped by 2.46%, and the declines were all over the market. However, it is worth noting that CSG’s A shares recorded a gain of 0.64%.

Since the beginning of 2011, photovoltaic companies ushered in the latest wave of heavy losses. From March 2011 to November 2012, Tianwei Change dropped from 24 yuan to 5.76 yuan, a drop of up to 76%, Tuolixin energy dropped by 80%, CSG A dropped by 70%, and Vosges shares fell by as much as 63%. The vast majority of PV companies’ stock price declines are from two to three times the decline in Shanghai stock index during the same period (32%).

In December, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 8.75%, but Tianwei Change only rose 8.5%, Vosges shares rose only 4.46%. However, during the same period, the extension of Japan's new energy rose by 13.1%, and CSG A rose by 15.64%. Under heavy pressure, the development trend of photovoltaic companies has been divided.

National New Policy Encouraging the Elimination of Lagging Production Capacity This year, the United States’ “anti-dumping” and anti-dumping investigations in Europe and the United States followed. A large number of Chinese PV companies stopped production and went out of business, and various policies were rushed out. On November 1st this year, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce initiated an investigation into anti-subsidy and anti-dumping investigations on polysilicon in the EU. However, industry analysts believe that it is actually a double-edged sword to conduct investigations on importation of polysilicon. On the one hand, this is a foreign trade. The fierce battle response is good for domestic polysilicon producers, but on the other hand, polysilicon is the main raw material for China's photovoltaic industry. Once anti-dumping duties are imposed, the cost of China's photovoltaic manufacturing industry will rise, which is tantamount to worse for the photovoltaic industry. .

Recently, the State Council executive meeting was deployed to determine five policy measures to promote the development of the photovoltaic industry. This is the first time that the government at the highest level of the country has explicitly proposed to encourage photovoltaic companies to phase out their production capacity. This is just a few short years after China positioned the photovoltaic industry as a strategic emerging industry. “In 2009, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology had appealed to China to stop investing in new PV projects. Because of the high prices of raw materials, new PV companies entered the market in 2009 and 2010 to lose one. After that two years, the prices of finished products have been falling.” Gao Hongling, deputy secretary-general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance, who just participated in the State Council's special meeting for photovoltaic production, said in an interview with our reporter yesterday.

Inconsistent with the standard will not be granted loans Gao Hongling revealed that the ministries and commissions are waiting for the State Council's division of labor to develop an industry access certification standards, indicators of this standard include the company's R & D capabilities, production scale and domestic and foreign market share, ownership of intellectual property rights Quantity and so on. If companies fail to meet these certification standards, they will not be able to obtain bank loans or new projects.

Gao Hongling revealed that the development of this standard will be carried out quickly. It is now at the end of December, and "it should be clear soon."

What kind of investment opportunities will arise in the upper reaches of the industry chain? Gao Hongling said: “This year, the installed capacity of the domestic photovoltaic industry (that is, the demand for the photovoltaic industry market) has been urgently expanded from 2.7 Gwatts last year to 4.5 Gwatts, which has doubled, but the domestic photovoltaic industry has a capacity of 40 this year. A G-watt, the output of up to 23 G. Therefore, relying on the development of the domestic market can not save all the photovoltaic companies.

In addition, the United States' success in China's photovoltaic industry has caused 10% of China's PV output to nowhere. The European market, which accounts for 60% of China's PV production, is also conducting anti-dumping lawsuits against China's PV industry. However, markets such as Australia and Singapore are opening up. Therefore, it is difficult to make clear what the appropriate amount of PV production is to be cut. ”

Shen Hui, professor of photovoltaics at Sun Yat-sen University, said in an interview with this reporter yesterday that listed companies such as CSG Group, Zhengtai Solar Energy, and Hairun Photovoltaics will survive the reorganization. The first two companies have opened up the industry chain, and the amount of business from the photovoltaic industry accounts for only one-third of the total, and Hairun photovoltaic management is effective, but also can find ways to stay in the past.

China Everbright Securities Zhou Liqian's research report believes that the country's policy orientation is clear and that PV will enter the capacity-reduction channel, and the industry will be ready for spring. The report predicts that in the next 6 to 9 months, the photovoltaic industry is expected to usher in a substantial capacity contraction period, with over 1GW of medium and large capacity withdrawal. At the same time, the stimulation of domestic demand coupled with the gradual recovery of the external market economy will support the effective growth of global PV demand by 10% to 15% next year. The relationship between supply and demand will also be expected to improve after the second quarter of next year.

Everbright Securities judged that after the capacity is withdrawn, investment opportunities will more likely emerge in the upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain.