China's LED development prospects
The huge market for LEDs is destined to develop into a huge industry. Overall, the development of large-scale industries in China has been unsatisfactory. The typical case is the integrated circuit industry and the LCD panel industry. The domestic IC industry is still a tail-carrying person. The LCD panel industry is also riddled with diseases and complicated technology. The main reason for the large investment and weak foundation is that the LED industry will break this magic curse and can promote the improvement of related industries. For example, the domestic driver chip industry cannot do it on the LCD driver, because the LCD panel industry is not in the country, because there is a huge With market support, LED driver chips are expected to flourish in China, and promote domestic related companies to become bigger and stronger, which in turn will promote the development of domestic LCD driver chips or other driver chips.
The disadvantages of the current development of the LED industry in mainland China are: First, the technical level of LED products of domestic enterprises still has a certain gap with overseas, and it is at a disadvantage in striving for high-end customers; Second, the domestic integrated circuit manufacturing base is compared with those of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. In the case of strong regions, the LED epitaxy, chip manufacturing capability, process level and peripheral materials supporting capacity are somewhat poor. The learning curve is longer and needs to be cultivated for a period of time. Third, the scale of domestic LED enterprises is still relatively small, and most of them do not exceed 100kk/month. Capacity (blue-green), this situation will improve in the next two years; Fourth, domestic R & D is concentrated in universities and research institutes, production in various enterprises, lack of rapid transformation mechanism for industrialization of research and development results, this should be used for reference Taiwan Industrial Research Institute's technical achievement authorization mechanism to speed up the transformation of technological achievements, scientific research institutes can not industrialize themselves without timely transfer of the latest technological achievements to the industry, the government should formulate relevant policies and regulations related behavior; Lack of patents, especially in the Blu-ray core of the industry's long-term development At present, Chinese local enterprises are still in the initial stage. The scale of enterprises is small, and it is not a threat to the mastery of patents. The patent issue is not very prominent. However, with the development and growth of domestic enterprises, once the scale is expanded to a certain extent and the “going out†development strategy is implemented, the patent issue will become a hidden danger. At present, for domestic enterprises, it is the primary task to strengthen the product quality and technology level, improve the ability to obtain the price of the patent in the future, or gradually break through the core patent through research and development.
We believe that the LED industry has good development prospects in China, based on the following points: First, in terms of technology, LED has high technical growth bottleneck and low learning threshold. The long-term research resources accumulated in the semiconductor field can be used. , has a good research foundation. Although the manufacturing base of domestic integrated circuits is relatively weak and the technological level is relatively low, some domestic enterprises have made breakthroughs in technology by hiring overseas technicians. The technical level of domestic good enterprises has not been much different from that of Taiwanese manufacturers. The overall gap with international manufacturers is also drawing closer. Second, LED investment is relatively small, the initial investment of 100 million can be built, domestic companies have low barriers to entry, easy to achieve rolling development, and integrated circuit manufacturing and LCD panels It is “insignificant†to make investments that cost billions to billions of yuan. Domestic companies are easy to enter into industrial clusters. Of course, they may also cause vicious competition. Market development is necessary at a certain stage. Third, the domestic market is huge. The main market in the future is the general lighting market. The market capacity is large, the terminal consumer market is relatively scattered, and it is not easy to form a monopoly. The domestic enterprises have a wide living space. 4. Some domestic enterprises have core intellectual property rights, such as the crystal substrate of GaN blue silicon nitride. Project, Dalian Lumei's core technology in the chip field, all have Global competitiveness, these enterprises are easy to form a demonstration effect in technology development, and promote the healthy growth of domestic enterprise market; Fifth, after the technology is mature, LED downstream packaging and device production are labor-intensive, and the mainland has the advantage of developing labor costs.
From the development of the LED industry, the largest market for global LED sales is the mobile phone backlight market. With the slowdown in mobile phone sales growth and the penetration of mobile phone OLED screens into TFT-LCD screens, the growth rate of global LEDs has declined. The cost reduction caused by technological advancement is not enough (or even before 2010) to allow LEDs to fully enter the general general lighting market. The next growth point in the world will be in the backlight market of notebooks, LCD TVs, and backlights and rear lights of automotive interiors. market. As the world's top five LCD panel manufacturers (LG Philips, Samsung, AUO, Chi Mei and Sharp) are distributed in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea with high LED technology and high production capacity, there are only three BOE, Shanghai Optoelectronics and Longteng Optoelectronics in China. Five generations of panel lines, Shanghai Tianma's 4.5 generation line capacity will also have LED backlight demand, but the overall demand is not dominant, domestic companies will not enter the LCD panel LED backlight supply chain will not benefit much, this with the mobile phone panel The backlight market has similarities.
China's current application market is mainly in architectural lighting, indoor and outdoor display screens. For the above reasons, the next wave of the main force may still be in these markets, but the penetration of mobile phones, small-size LCD backlights, and automobiles will increase, and others will be scattered. Markets such as special lighting will also be more developed (special lighting costs are not as demanding as general lighting). After a few years of replacement, LED traffic lights have become very common. Due to the long service life of LEDs, it is difficult to have large-scale replacement work in the short term. This will cause the traffic light to have a low tide for LED demand. The domestic car market is huge, but the requirements are high, and the certification period is long. As long as there is excellent product quality, the LED market demand for domestic automotive backlights and lights is very large, and the demand growth in this market is relatively stable; It has been widely used in banks, securities, plazas, stations, and stadiums due to its advantages of easy assembly, low power consumption, and high brightness. In the future, this market still has great growth potential; demonstrations in the Olympic Games, World Expo, and some urban nightscape projects Driven by the effects and many favorable factors such as the national semiconductor lighting project, the architectural lighting market is still promising.
In general, international manufacturers focus on some high-end, target-market “packaged†markets and the huge potential general lighting market, and let some markets with relatively low technical requirements and relatively weak future control. Because of its large number of patents, it is not worried about being squeezed out of the market in the future. At this stage, it is not very proficient in production capacity (Japanese-Japanese monthly production capacity of 500kk, Toyota Synthetic and Cree are 350kk and 300kk respectively), and is focused on leading the market technology trend. When the technology matures to the scale of entering the general lighting market, it is estimated that its production capacity will increase rapidly, while reducing the external patent authorization. This “center-periphery†competition is expected to last for a long time.
At present, the domestic manufacturers' market is mainly in the Mainland. If the chip export is likely to encounter two challenges: First, the patent litigation of major international manufacturers (mainly Blu-ray and white light), in fact, only a certain scale, whether export or not There will be patent challenges, but export is more likely to be subject to patent litigation. Second, competition from other peripheral manufacturers, especially Taiwanese manufacturers, Taiwanese manufacturers follow their traditional strategy - technology closely tracks international manufacturers, while vigorously improving Capacity, cost reduction, Taiwan's chip production capacity is currently the world's number one, and there are some other industries such as Hon Hai, Lianmao, and Jia are entering this field one after another. In the future, Taiwan's production capacity will affect the global LED chip market price fluctuations. In view of the huge domestic market demand, domestic chip factories can obtain sufficient development even if they rely on the domestic market. If overseas optoelectronics manufacturers enter the domestic market without restrictions, domestic enterprises will face continuous competitive pressure, which is for domestic enterprises in the growth stage. The words are very unfavorable. At this stage, the LED industry is in the long-term, and it is also the domestic layout period of each LED manufacturer. Foreign investment enjoys preferential taxation in the domestic market. Domestic enterprises are in an unequal position in the competition. For foreign capital to enter the domestic market, it is encouraged to set up factories in China to engage in extension and chip. Such enterprises with core technologies can promote the cultivation of domestic talents and improve the overall technical level; they should limit those enterprises that are encapsulated in domestic, epitaxial, chip and other core technologies, which are specially designed to occupy the market abroad. Let such enterprises in the various core areas of the card position, local enterprises can not enjoy the benefits of technological progress, development space is limited, in the future, I am afraid to rely on price wars, and do not want to do things, so currently Restrictions should be imposed on foreign capital only in the packaged part, such as the import tariff on chips.
From the perspective of patent litigation, it is not terrible. As long as the main competitors have paid, everyone is still on the same competitive starting line. Taiwan’s LED chips factories that are involved in blue and white light have experienced LED litigation during their growth. A settlement was reached in the lawsuit, and the patent authorization was obtained, which continued to grow. The best response is to do large-scale at this stage, obtain patent authorization, and at the same time continue to strengthen its own research and development, improve bargaining power in patent litigation, and strive for cross-licensing. In terms of the scale of domestic enterprises, Xiamen Sanan may first usher in the “baptism†of this growth.
Future industry competition will depend on two aspects. First, technology, including technologies that improve luminous efficiency, reduce costs, and improve device power. There are extensions to existing technology routes in the direction, and new technology routes may emerge. Including process technology for obtaining high-quality products, as well as peripheral design such as lighting system design and driver chip design; second, scale, on the one hand, it can reduce costs due to large scale, and the market has strong bargaining power; on the other hand, compound epitaxial wafers and integrated circuits The silicon wafers used in manufacturing are very different in that the performance of the chips fabricated on the same epitaxial layer may be quite different. This is an application area where the consistency is relatively high (typically, such as a liquid crystal panel backlight). Only a part of the requirements meet the requirements, but for large-scale enterprises, it has a multi-level market structure, which can allocate chip products that do not meet the requirements of a certain market to another market, and the overall output efficiency of the company is fully improved.
The LED industry has a bright future, but only the leading companies in these two areas are the future kings.
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