We got the first consumer VR heads up about a year ago, and since then many people have visited us to understand the next computing platform and we have done more than 100 VR (Vive and Rift) and AR for them. (HoloLens) demonstration. Children, parents, the elderly, professional football balls, officials, company executives, game enthusiasts... From skeptics to extremely excited optimists, we have demonstrated for people from different backgrounds in different industries. So far, we have participated in 50 special VR/AR demonstrations.
Now, we think it makes sense to look back at the past and think about the future of VR. The following are some of our views on the first year of VR.
1. The product has appeared and is awesome
All those who tried Vive were shocked by their level of immersion and the experience of being sent to another world. Although the industry is still exploring controllers, tracking, resolution and cables, there is no doubt that this technology is "enough" to make people feel completely immersed in another world. It was very interesting to see everyone who was actually standing on the solid floor and was thrilled to be afraid of falling from the "high-altitude butcher's bridge", which also confirmed that VR is a transformative experience.
2. but not enough
Although the VR experience is very shocking, it is still not enough to attract consumers to buy the first display. We have already performed more than 100 demonstrations, but only a few people are excited enough to spend about 7,000 yuan to purchase a VR system, and an additional payment of about 10,000 yuan is equipped with a compatible PC. Perhaps because the marketing of hardware is not enough, but as far as we observe, it seems that the entire industry and the market are the same. VR hardware sales are not as expected. For example, Sony sold less than 1 million, while the efficiency of HTC Vive and Oculus Rift was also predicted to be less than 500,000.
3. Enterprises Adopt VR and AR Earlier Than Consumers
Almost all corporate innovation labs have produced some VR experience. IKEA has developed a kitchen visualization tool; Ford's application allows you to "become" a racing driver. We also see the early adoption of HoloLens AR technology at the enterprise level, especially for healthcare, financial services and various forms of design. Companies have discovered the enormous potential of VR and AR, and they are constantly experimenting to find ways to help achieve their business goals.
4. The first killer app will have social attributes
People who are willing to spend the most time on VR (and potentially MR) applications will have social attributes. Humans have inherent social desires, so tools for communication are extremely important, such as Facebook, WeChat, Weibo, Twitter, and Skype. In addition, given the immersive nature of VR, this is a particularly suitable platform for communication. In the VR applications with social attributes, attractive early examples include "Rec Room" bygainst Gravity and "Smashbox" by BigBox.
5. Children
One of the most impressive things that we've done in the demo is that kids can adapt quickly to VR. We know some kids who can spend more than a dozen hours playing social VR games. Children are incredibly comfortable with using new technologies, and they are likely to imagine new VR use cases that developers have never considered. Interestingly, the "little guys" who tried AR and VR preferred VR, while the "old guys" thought that AR was more commercial.
6. Learn from the arcade shop
In terms of VR penetration, the United States actually lags far behind China. From shopping malls, theme parks, to karaoke bars and Internet cafes, Asian markets have been at the forefront of VR adoption, not to mention the numerous simple and inexpensive Asian markets. The smartphone’s head display can provide consumers with a basic mobile VR experience. As soon as the experience of the store is criticized, Xiaobian believes that VR arcade shops that are more entertaining than the experience store in the short term may spring up like mushrooms around the world and effectively promote the popularity of virtual reality. HTC first opened the Viveland arcade point in Taipei and is now taking China’s VR market as its primary goal.
American VR companies want to learn from China. They are also seeking funding from Asian investors. After all, a large part of VR investment in the market is initiated by Asian investors. In fact, CB Insights’ report shows that Chinese investors participated in 21% of VR/AR investments last year, including Magic Leap’s $749 million Series C financing (Alibaba) and NextVR’s $80 million Series B round of financing (including Netease’s China's five Chinese investment institutions).
7. Companies and investors are waiting for a major breakthrough in AR/VR development
Maybe it will be Apple's first product to enter AR/VR; perhaps it is the popularity of Google's Daydream; or may be the widespread success of Snapchat Spectacle... Most AR/VR companies won't generate a larger user base. Too much profit. Profitability is not easy. Although some game companies have already begun to make profits, companies do not have enough market space to try business models. Even the so-called "Pokemon Go", the first "explosive money" application in the AR world, was not mainly because of "AR" but because of other non-AR factors. Early VR and AR companies needed to make sure they had a strategy that they could survive and continue to develop good products until the mainstream market was more willing to experiment with VR/AR experiences.
8. VR/AR indicates the arrival of a new era of human-computer interaction
Traditional text interfaces and graphical input interfaces require people to interact with data and applications in a way that computers can understand. VR and AR are a new, natural user interface that allows people to interact with the real world as they interact. This means that we can interact with computers and content through voice, vision, and gestures. We can imagine how difficult it is to remember to share the location of the 100 different files in the driver. Just say "show last week's meeting with Sally," and the system will show it right away, which will make it easy. Developers will develop new applications that allow us to easily and naturally interact with the digital world and the physical world.
We are very much looking forward to the development of the virtual reality and augmented reality market in the next 3-5 years. Now we have seen VR's promising use cases, such as making VR demos of buildings before construction; we also see use cases where companies are working closely together to develop technology, such as Microsoft, Case Western Reserve University and the Cleveland Clinic. They are now allowing medical students to wear HoloLens heads to see different parts of the human heart in 3D space and learn more about how the heart works.
Technology has had a huge impact on humanity, and we firmly believe that virtual reality and augmented reality will subvert the way we work, play, and live.
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